Forum Message

Topic: Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply
Posted by: Steven Rose
Date/Time: 13/04/26 18:01:00

I can see why those opposed to America’s intervention in Iran would be well disposed to the views expressed by the Iranian analyst, Ali Vaez,  but are they true?

1) It is probably true that the IRG has gained influence at the expense of the clerics but I doubt that this will bring Iran closer to Russia and China than it already is. Iran has supplied Russia with drones since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, while China is an important customer for its oil.

2)The new hardliners may be less bothered about social restrictions on women  than the clerics, but that is hardly likely to defuse resentment against the regime. The protests in January were about more than the obligation on women to wear a head scarf in public. The protesters were demonstrating a desire for democracy and were brutally repressed by the hardliners who are still in power.

3) The Iranian blockade of Hormuz is certainly a weapon in the hands of the regime but their strategy can be countered. The Americans are now blockading the Straits themselves, preventing Iran from exporting its oil. The Saudis are also likely to increase flows through the pipeline from the east of their country to the Red Sea, avoiding transit through Hormuz.

4) The Iranian attacks on the Gulf States have probably affected confidence in American protection but the conflict is not yet over.

5) Trump’s comments about bombing Iran back into the Stone Age no doubt alienated many people in Iran but I doubt that antipathy to America will reconcile the Iranian population to a regime which only three months ago murdered tens of thousands of their fellow citizens. In a city like Teheran everyone will either have lost a family member or know someone who has lost a family member.

6) The view that bombing Iran’s  nuclear facilities will only delay the production of a nuclear device sounds very much like a counsel of despair. The analyst seems to be saying the regime is going to produce a nuclear bomb anyway, so we may as well let them get on with it.

7) It is all very well to downplay the Iranian threat to wipe Israel off the map as a tribal rallying call, but the Israelis certainly don’t see it that way and who can blame them?



Entire Thread
TopicDate PostedPosted By
Is Trump completely unhinged?06/04/26 09:21:00 Richard Carter
   Reply06/04/26 10:43:00 Michael Ixer
      Re:Reply06/04/26 11:38:00 Jonathan Callaway
         Re:Re:Reply06/04/26 11:53:00 Jonathan Callaway
            Re:Re:Re:Reply06/04/26 12:40:00 Gerry Boyce
               Reply06/04/26 13:11:00 Michael Ixer
      Reply07/04/26 17:17:00 Michael Ixer
   Reply06/04/26 13:23:00 Michael Ixer
      Re:Reply06/04/26 13:57:00 Gerry Boyce
   Re:Is Trump completely unhinged?06/04/26 13:52:00 Ivonne Holliday
      Reply06/04/26 14:16:00 Michael Ixer
         Re:Reply06/04/26 16:28:00 Ivonne Holliday
            Re:Re:Reply06/04/26 16:58:00 Steven Rose
               Reply06/04/26 17:50:00 Michael Ixer
                  Re:Reply06/04/26 18:01:00 Steven Rose
                     Is Trump Completely Unhinged?06/04/26 18:13:00 Sue Hammond
                        Reply06/04/26 18:24:00 Michael Ixer
                           Re:Reply06/04/26 18:37:00 Sue Hammond
                              Re:Re:Reply06/04/26 20:17:00 Ivonne Holliday
                                 Re:Re:Re:Reply06/04/26 21:19:00 Sue Hammond
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/04/26 22:29:00 Ivonne Holliday
                                    Reply06/04/26 22:50:00 Michael Ixer
                        Re:Is Trump Completely Unhinged?06/04/26 18:43:00 Gerry Boyce
                     Re:Re:Reply06/04/26 19:45:00 Ivonne Holliday
            Re:Re:Reply06/04/26 18:34:00 Gerry Boyce
   Reply06/04/26 19:13:00 Michael Ixer
      Re:Reply06/04/26 19:25:00 Robert Wheeler
         Re:Re:Reply06/04/26 19:54:00 Steven Rose
            Reply06/04/26 20:01:00 Michael Ixer
            Re:Re:Re:Reply06/04/26 20:30:00 Gerry Boyce
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/04/26 20:50:00 Robert Wheeler
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/04/26 21:28:00 Michael Brigo
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/04/26 22:06:00 Gerry Boyce
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/04/26 22:49:00 Steven Rose
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/04/26 23:32:00 Gerry Boyce
                        Reply06/04/26 23:44:00 Michael Ixer
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply06/04/26 23:58:00 Michael Brigo
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply07/04/26 00:03:00 Michael Brigo
   Reply07/04/26 09:36:00 Richard Carter
      Re:Reply07/04/26 10:11:00 Steven Rose
         Re:Re:Reply07/04/26 13:24:00 John Hawkes
         Reply07/04/26 13:53:00 Richard Carter
            Re:Reply07/04/26 16:29:00 John Hawkes
      Re:Reply07/04/26 10:44:00 Ivonne Holliday
         Re:Re:Reply07/04/26 14:13:00 Gerry Boyce
            Reply07/04/26 17:14:00 Michael Ixer
   Reply07/04/26 15:23:00 Michael Brigo
      Re:Reply07/04/26 16:24:00 Steven Rose
         Re:Re:Reply07/04/26 17:11:00 John Hawkes
            Re:Re:Re:Reply08/04/26 11:30:00 John Hawkes
         Re:Re:Reply07/04/26 17:17:00 Ivonne Holliday
            Re:Re:Re:Reply07/04/26 18:25:00 Steven Rose
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply07/04/26 18:43:00 Ivonne Holliday
               Reply08/04/26 11:46:00 Richard Carter
                  Re:Reply08/04/26 12:02:00 John Hawkes
   Re:Is Trump completely unhinged?07/04/26 19:15:00 Steven Rose
   Reply08/04/26 13:16:00 Richard Carter
      Re:Reply08/04/26 13:32:00 John Hawkes
      Re:Reply08/04/26 15:59:00 John Hawkes
         Re:Re:Reply08/04/26 18:03:00 Steven Rose
            Re:Re:Re:Reply09/04/26 17:52:00 John Hawkes
            Re:Re:Re:Reply09/04/26 21:20:00 Gerry Boyce
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply10/04/26 11:54:00 John Hawkes
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply10/04/26 13:01:00 Gerry Boyce
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply10/04/26 16:02:00 John Hawkes
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply10/04/26 16:28:00 Gerry Boyce
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply11/04/26 14:22:00 Gerry Boyce
      Re:Reply08/04/26 18:02:00 Ivonne Holliday
   Reply09/04/26 19:15:00 Michael Ixer
      Re:Reply09/04/26 20:16:00 Gerry Boyce
         Re:Re:Reply09/04/26 22:25:00 Steven Rose
            Re:Re:Re:Reply09/04/26 23:41:00 Michael Brigo
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply10/04/26 00:43:00 Steven Rose
                  Reply10/04/26 12:02:00 Richard Carter
         Re:Re:Reply10/04/26 12:03:00 John Hawkes
            Re:Re:Re:Reply10/04/26 12:20:00 Gerry Boyce
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply10/04/26 16:46:00 John Hawkes
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply10/04/26 17:16:00 Gerry Boyce
      Re:Reply10/04/26 12:01:00 John Hawkes
         Reply10/04/26 13:27:00 Michael Ixer
   Reply10/04/26 11:45:00 Michael Ixer
      Re:Reply10/04/26 12:13:00 Gerry Boyce
         Re:Re:Reply10/04/26 12:33:00 Steven Rose
            Reply10/04/26 13:08:00 Richard Carter
               Re:Reply10/04/26 18:18:00 Steven Rose
                  Reply10/04/26 21:19:00 Richard Carter
                  Re:Re:Reply10/04/26 21:21:00 Gerry Boyce
                     Re:Re:Re:Reply10/04/26 22:14:00 Steven Rose
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply10/04/26 22:20:00 Gerry Boyce
                        Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply11/04/26 11:26:00 John Hawkes
                           Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply11/04/26 18:32:00 Steven Rose
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply11/04/26 21:37:00 Gerry Boyce
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply11/04/26 21:56:00 Steven Rose
                                    Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply11/04/26 22:23:00 Gerry Boyce
                                       Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply13/04/26 09:44:00 John Hawkes
                                    Reply11/04/26 22:26:00 Sue Hammond
                              Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply13/04/26 09:21:00 John Hawkes
                                 Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply13/04/26 10:53:00 Gerry Boyce
   Reply13/04/26 01:06:00 Richard Carter
      Re:Reply13/04/26 08:21:00 Steven Rose
         Re:Re:Reply13/04/26 09:26:00 Jonathan Callaway
            Re:Re:Re:Reply13/04/26 10:35:00 John Hawkes
         Re:Re:Reply13/04/26 09:51:00 John Hawkes
      Re:Reply13/04/26 09:49:00 John Hawkes
         Re:Re:Reply13/04/26 10:27:00 Steven Rose
            Re:Re:Re:Reply13/04/26 10:59:00 Jonathan Callaway
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply13/04/26 11:56:00 Gerry Boyce
                  Reply13/04/26 12:10:00 Michael Ixer
                     Re:Reply13/04/26 12:27:00 Gerry Boyce
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply13/04/26 14:29:00 John Hawkes
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply13/04/26 15:25:00 Gerry Boyce
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply13/04/26 14:17:00 John Hawkes
            Re:Re:Re:Reply13/04/26 11:06:00 John Hawkes
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply13/04/26 11:21:00 Steven Rose
               Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply13/04/26 12:43:00 Gerry Boyce
                  Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply13/04/26 18:01:00 Steven Rose
                     Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply13/04/26 18:32:00 Gerry Boyce
   Reply13/04/26 22:09:00 Michael Ixer

Forum Home