| Topic: | Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | |
| Posted by: | Gerry Boyce | |
| Date/Time: | 13/04/26 11:56:00 |
| I agree with that assessment, Jonathan. I would add that there is a very interesting conversation on the Newsagent Podcast with Ali Vaez, an Iranian analyst; it is worth a listen. In brief, his assessment of Iran now is: 1) The clerics have largely been replaced with men who have come through the IDF, a more military background then religious, and that the power base has shifted to them. They are more hardline and more strategic in their approach. They will very likely want Iran to form enhanced ties with Russia, and very possibly with China. 2) He also thinks that these guys will not be so concerned about social restrictions as the clerics, and therefore, may well be able to defuse some of the heat that generated the recent protests. In short, he thinks the recent attacks by Israel and the US have set back the cause of democracy by a decade or more. 3) The Strait of Hormuz has become a choke point that these guys are best placed to exploit, and he thinks they will do so relentlessly. 4) In the wider region, the belief that relying on the US for stability has been severely undermined. 5) The threat to bomb Iran back to the stone ages, has been propaganda gold to the regime; they can now point to this and say the US hates us all (Iranians) equally - not just the regime. 6) Iran has a path to nuclear production, the question is, for how long will it be delayed. Confiscating some material, bombing facilities etc etc will not alter this fact. 7) He describes the call to 'wipe Israel off the map' as a rallying cry that helped unify separate tribes and warring groups in Iran and the wider muslim world. It was more strategic than literal. I think his assessment is very interesting; others no doubt will have different opinions. This attack though, has been an absolute disaster for all. Why would anyone think that more of the same is the best way forward? |
| Topic | Date Posted | Posted By |
| Is Trump completely unhinged? | 06/04/26 09:21:00 | Richard Carter |
| Reply | 06/04/26 10:43:00 | Michael Ixer |
| Re:Reply | 06/04/26 11:38:00 | Jonathan Callaway |
| Re:Re:Reply | 06/04/26 11:53:00 | Jonathan Callaway |
| Re:Re:Re:Reply | 06/04/26 12:40:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Reply | 06/04/26 13:11:00 | Michael Ixer |
| Reply | 07/04/26 17:17:00 | Michael Ixer |
| Reply | 06/04/26 13:23:00 | Michael Ixer |
| Re:Reply | 06/04/26 13:57:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Re:Is Trump completely unhinged? | 06/04/26 13:52:00 | Ivonne Holliday |
| Reply | 06/04/26 14:16:00 | Michael Ixer |
| Re:Reply | 06/04/26 16:28:00 | Ivonne Holliday |
| Re:Re:Reply | 06/04/26 16:58:00 | Steven Rose |
| Reply | 06/04/26 17:50:00 | Michael Ixer |
| Re:Reply | 06/04/26 18:01:00 | Steven Rose |
| Is Trump Completely Unhinged? | 06/04/26 18:13:00 | Sue Hammond |
| Reply | 06/04/26 18:24:00 | Michael Ixer |
| Re:Reply | 06/04/26 18:37:00 | Sue Hammond |
| Re:Re:Reply | 06/04/26 20:17:00 | Ivonne Holliday |
| Re:Re:Re:Reply | 06/04/26 21:19:00 | Sue Hammond |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 06/04/26 22:29:00 | Ivonne Holliday |
| Reply | 06/04/26 22:50:00 | Michael Ixer |
| Re:Is Trump Completely Unhinged? | 06/04/26 18:43:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Re:Re:Reply | 06/04/26 19:45:00 | Ivonne Holliday |
| Re:Re:Reply | 06/04/26 18:34:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Reply | 06/04/26 19:13:00 | Michael Ixer |
| Re:Reply | 06/04/26 19:25:00 | Robert Wheeler |
| Re:Re:Reply | 06/04/26 19:54:00 | Steven Rose |
| Reply | 06/04/26 20:01:00 | Michael Ixer |
| Re:Re:Re:Reply | 06/04/26 20:30:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 06/04/26 20:50:00 | Robert Wheeler |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 06/04/26 21:28:00 | Michael Brigo |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 06/04/26 22:06:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 06/04/26 22:49:00 | Steven Rose |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 06/04/26 23:32:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Reply | 06/04/26 23:44:00 | Michael Ixer |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 06/04/26 23:58:00 | Michael Brigo |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 07/04/26 00:03:00 | Michael Brigo |
| Reply | 07/04/26 09:36:00 | Richard Carter |
| Re:Reply | 07/04/26 10:11:00 | Steven Rose |
| Re:Re:Reply | 07/04/26 13:24:00 | John Hawkes |
| Reply | 07/04/26 13:53:00 | Richard Carter |
| Re:Reply | 07/04/26 16:29:00 | John Hawkes |
| Re:Reply | 07/04/26 10:44:00 | Ivonne Holliday |
| Re:Re:Reply | 07/04/26 14:13:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Reply | 07/04/26 17:14:00 | Michael Ixer |
| Reply | 07/04/26 15:23:00 | Michael Brigo |
| Re:Reply | 07/04/26 16:24:00 | Steven Rose |
| Re:Re:Reply | 07/04/26 17:11:00 | John Hawkes |
| Re:Re:Re:Reply | 08/04/26 11:30:00 | John Hawkes |
| Re:Re:Reply | 07/04/26 17:17:00 | Ivonne Holliday |
| Re:Re:Re:Reply | 07/04/26 18:25:00 | Steven Rose |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 07/04/26 18:43:00 | Ivonne Holliday |
| Reply | 08/04/26 11:46:00 | Richard Carter |
| Re:Reply | 08/04/26 12:02:00 | John Hawkes |
| Re:Is Trump completely unhinged? | 07/04/26 19:15:00 | Steven Rose |
| Reply | 08/04/26 13:16:00 | Richard Carter |
| Re:Reply | 08/04/26 13:32:00 | John Hawkes |
| Re:Reply | 08/04/26 15:59:00 | John Hawkes |
| Re:Re:Reply | 08/04/26 18:03:00 | Steven Rose |
| Re:Re:Re:Reply | 09/04/26 17:52:00 | John Hawkes |
| Re:Re:Re:Reply | 09/04/26 21:20:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 10/04/26 11:54:00 | John Hawkes |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 10/04/26 13:01:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 10/04/26 16:02:00 | John Hawkes |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 10/04/26 16:28:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 11/04/26 14:22:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Re:Reply | 08/04/26 18:02:00 | Ivonne Holliday |
| Reply | 09/04/26 19:15:00 | Michael Ixer |
| Re:Reply | 09/04/26 20:16:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Re:Re:Reply | 09/04/26 22:25:00 | Steven Rose |
| Re:Re:Re:Reply | 09/04/26 23:41:00 | Michael Brigo |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 10/04/26 00:43:00 | Steven Rose |
| Reply | 10/04/26 12:02:00 | Richard Carter |
| Re:Re:Reply | 10/04/26 12:03:00 | John Hawkes |
| Re:Re:Re:Reply | 10/04/26 12:20:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 10/04/26 16:46:00 | John Hawkes |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 10/04/26 17:16:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Re:Reply | 10/04/26 12:01:00 | John Hawkes |
| Reply | 10/04/26 13:27:00 | Michael Ixer |
| Reply | 10/04/26 11:45:00 | Michael Ixer |
| Re:Reply | 10/04/26 12:13:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Re:Re:Reply | 10/04/26 12:33:00 | Steven Rose |
| Reply | 10/04/26 13:08:00 | Richard Carter |
| Re:Reply | 10/04/26 18:18:00 | Steven Rose |
| Reply | 10/04/26 21:19:00 | Richard Carter |
| Re:Re:Reply | 10/04/26 21:21:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Re:Re:Re:Reply | 10/04/26 22:14:00 | Steven Rose |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 10/04/26 22:20:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 11/04/26 11:26:00 | John Hawkes |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 11/04/26 18:32:00 | Steven Rose |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 11/04/26 21:37:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 11/04/26 21:56:00 | Steven Rose |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 11/04/26 22:23:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 13/04/26 09:44:00 | John Hawkes |
| Reply | 11/04/26 22:26:00 | Sue Hammond |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 13/04/26 09:21:00 | John Hawkes |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 13/04/26 10:53:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Reply | 13/04/26 01:06:00 | Richard Carter |
| Re:Reply | 13/04/26 08:21:00 | Steven Rose |
| Re:Re:Reply | 13/04/26 09:26:00 | Jonathan Callaway |
| Re:Re:Re:Reply | 13/04/26 10:35:00 | John Hawkes |
| Re:Re:Reply | 13/04/26 09:51:00 | John Hawkes |
| Re:Reply | 13/04/26 09:49:00 | John Hawkes |
| Re:Re:Reply | 13/04/26 10:27:00 | Steven Rose |
| Re:Re:Re:Reply | 13/04/26 10:59:00 | Jonathan Callaway |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 13/04/26 11:56:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Reply | 13/04/26 12:10:00 | Michael Ixer |
| Re:Reply | 13/04/26 12:27:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 13/04/26 14:29:00 | John Hawkes |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 13/04/26 15:25:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 13/04/26 14:17:00 | John Hawkes |
| Re:Re:Re:Reply | 13/04/26 11:06:00 | John Hawkes |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 13/04/26 11:21:00 | Steven Rose |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 13/04/26 12:43:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 13/04/26 18:01:00 | Steven Rose |
| Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Re:Reply | 13/04/26 18:32:00 | Gerry Boyce |
| Reply | 13/04/26 22:09:00 | Michael Ixer |