Whatever one thinks of the Iranian leaders - and, yes, they are murderous, theocratic dictators - it looks like Trump, Hesgeth et al have misjudged them. Iran's military hasn't been destroyed, probably seriously degraded, but they're still retaliating with attacks on states within the Arabian peninsula. The US attacks have helped retain support against the Iranian government - the school that was hit by the US early on in the conflict has probably been used to dilute any support for the US; an early admission of the mistake and a promise of reparations as has been the case in earlier conflicts would have been sensible (the evidence points to the use of out of date intelligence although the US has held back publication of the official report). These things aren't binary; just because many Iranian hate their leaders doesn't mean they see Trump as their saviour. The Iranian regime know they have an advantage - they're unaccountable to an electorate whereas Trump has mid term elections looming - and rising gas prices, inflation and a billions of dollar bill for the conflict aren't going to help the Republican Party retain power in Congress. There's also the issue of who is leading the Iranian regime and who the US are ultimately negotiating with. It's nominally the late Ayatolla's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, but he was apparently seriously wounded in the attack that killed his father. He hasn't been seen in public, perhaps to protect him from Israeli assassination, but he may be incapacitated or even dead and just being used as a figurehead to give authority to others' decisions. It seems improbable that bombing will force regime change so Trump will have to negotiate and there's a growing opinion that any deal will be similar to Obama's one - only with Trump’s signature on it. I doubt Trump would put troops on the ground to try and force regime change. Iranians in my experience are well educated and sane, they will have the scientific and technological ability to build a fission bomb given time. However, given an appropriate agreement will they want to and, even if they did, is it just part of the whole nuclear weapons MAD power struggle - I'd consider North Korea a more realistic threat. Anyway, I wonder what the US military would do if a Chinese or Russian navy shop escorted a tanker flying their flag through the Strait of Hormuz to collect oil? I suspect Trump will feel the need for a deal soon. As the meme from the US going the rounds of Facebook yesterday said "What's the difference between Vietnam and Iran: Trump had a plan to avoid Vietnam  ...".

Entire Thread

Topic	Date Posted	Posted By
Trump’s great success in Iran	25/07/26 10:16:00	Richard Carter
Re:Trump’s great success in Iran	25/07/26 10:33:00	Steven Rose
Reply	25/07/26 20:58:00	Richard Carter
Re:Reply	25/07/26 22:12:00	Sue Hammond
Re:Re:Reply	26/07/26 09:46:00	Michael Brigo
Re:Reply	26/07/26 10:32:00	John Hawkes
Re:Re:Reply	26/07/26 11:08:00	John Hawkes
Re:Trump’s great success in Iran	25/07/26 11:37:00	John Hawkes
Re:Re:Trump’s great success in Iran	26/07/26 09:25:00	Steven Rose
Re:Re:Re:Trump’s great success in Iran	26/07/26 12:11:00	Philippa Bond
Reply	26/07/26 12:53:00	Michael Ixer
Re:Reply	27/07/26 10:47:00	John Hawkes
Reply	27/07/26 11:01:00	Michael Ixer
Re:Re:Re:Re:Trump’s great success in Iran	27/07/26 10:25:00	John Hawkes

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